Long-term carbon loss in fragmented Neotropical forests

Tropical forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle, as they store a large amount of carbon (C). Tropical forest deforestation has been identified as a major source of CO2 emissions, though biomass loss due to fragmentation—the creation of additional forest edges—has been largely overlooked as an additional CO2 source. Here, through the combination of remote sensing and knowledge on ecological processes, we present long-term carbon loss estimates due to fragmentation of Neotropical forests: within 10 years the Brazilian Atlantic Forest has lost 69 (±14) Tg C, and the Amazon 599 (±120) Tg C due to fragmentation alone. For all tropical forests, we estimate emissions up to 0.2 Pg C y−1 or 9 to 24% of the annual global C loss due to deforestation. In conclusion, tropical forest fragmentation increases carbon loss and should be accounted for when attempting to understand the role of vegetation in the global carbon balance.This study was part of the project ‘Biodiversity conservation in a fragmented landscape at the Atlantic Plateau of São Paulo’ (BIOTA/Caucaia and BioCAPSP) funded by FAPESP (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, project no. 99/05123-4, 01/13309-2, 02/02125-0, 02/02126-7), CNPq (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, project no. 690144/01-6), Fundação O Boticário de Proteção à Natureza, and by BMBF (German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, project n. 01LB0202). J.P.M. and M.C.R. thank the Brazilian Science Council (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico) for his research fellowship (process no. 307934/2011-0 and 312045/2013-1, respectively). A.H. and S.P. were supported by the ERC advanced grant 233066. M.M. has been supported by BMBF (project n. 01LB0202), and the Department of Ecological Modelling of the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ). We thank Birgit Felinks for the support during the Mata Atlântica project. Florian Hartig provided valuable comments on an earlier version of this manuscript. S.P. has been funded by the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres within the project ‘Biomass and Bioenergy systems’. A.H. was also supported by the Helmholtz-Alliance Remote Sensing and Earth System Dynamics. A.H. thanks C. Wissel and H. Bossel for supporting the FORMIND project over the years

Carbon losses from deforestation and widespread degradation offset by extensive growth in African woodlands

Degradation—the loss of carbon stored in intact woodland—is very difficult to measure over large areas. Here, the authors show that carbon emissions from degradation in African woodlands greatly exceed those from deforestation, but are happening alongside widespread increases in biomass in remote areas

Forest Biomass Density across Large Climate Gradients in Northern South America is related to Water Availability but not with Temperature

Understanding and predicting the likely response of ecosystems to climate change are crucial challenges for ecology and for conservation biology. Nowhere is this challenge greater than in the tropics as these forests store more than half the total atmospheric carbon stock in their biomass. Biomass is determined by the balance between biomass inputs (i.e., growth) and outputs (mortality). We can expect therefore that conditions that favor high growth rates, such as abundant water supply, warmth, and nutrient-rich soils will tend to correlate with high biomass stocks. Our main objective is to describe the patterns of above ground biomass (AGB) stocks across major tropical forests across climatic gradients in Northwestern South America. We gathered data from 200 plots across the region, at elevations ranging between 0 to 3400 m. We estimated AGB based on allometric equations and values for stem density, basal area, and wood density weighted by basal area at the plot-level. We used two groups of climatic variables, namely mean annual temperature and actual evapotranspiration as surrogates of environmental energy, and annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality, and water availability as surrogates of water availability. We found that AGB is more closely related to water availability variables than to energy variables. In northwest South America, water availability influences carbon stocks principally by determining stand structure, i.e. basal area. When water deficits increase in tropical forests we can expect negative impact on biomass and hence carbon storage

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified